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Sunday, January 25, 2004

New Hampshire Prediction

Because I did so well predicting the Iowa Caucuses (ha!), I'll take a whack at New Hampshire to see how badly I can humble myself:

Kerry: 28%
Dean: 24%
Edwards: 19%
Clark: 15%

All four will get delegates, Dean will claim rebound momentum, and Edwards will remain alive for South Carolina. Clark's campaign will begin to stall out, but he will stay in the race. Lieberman will withdraw, along with Kucinich if the Ohioan manages to get a moment of lucidity.

UPDATE: Other bloggers are starting to line up as well. Check out the predictions at the Evangelical Outpost, who managed to predict an upset in Iowa. He's predicting a solid Kerry victory by 15 points. (Gulp!) Dan at California Yankee agrees with me on the order, but he's not predicting percentages ... wise man that he is. He's got tons more links to blog predictions. The Commissar at Politburo Diktat thinks that Clark will win -- which makes me wonder what the Politburo's been smokin' over there. He's either brilliant or joking, and the best part is that he can claim either one on Wednesday. Oh, and don't forget to check out the Commissar's entry in the MoveOn ad contest.

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09:40 AM in Presidential Election | Permalink


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» New Hampshire Predictions and Simulblogging Plans from ProfessorBainbridge.com
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Gutsy prediction. Interestingly, what would have been a disaster for Dean rwo weeks ago (losing by 4%) could indeed be deemed a win, or more likely, a Kerry loss. I am hoping you are right, but I think Kerry wins by no less than 10%, and Dean finishes in single digits.

Posted by: at Jan 25, 2004 9:49:13 AM

I generally agree the prediction and its key implications:
Kerry starts to fall back to the field.
Dean stablizes and remains a real contender.
Edwards continues a steady climb into contention.

However, I predict that Lieberman battles it out with Clark for fourth place at ten to twelve percent each. My gut tells me Lieberman edges Clark out as Clark's creepiness factor weighs in. The consequences are that Lieberman gets to hang around for another more couple of weeks, and Clark only hangs around for a couple more weeks.

Posted by: JP Sobel at Jan 25, 2004 12:52:40 PM

Mine was more of a "this would be the MOST INTERESTING outcome," rather than a forecast.

But, what the Hell, if it pans out, I'll claim bragging rights. :)

Posted by: The Commissar at Jan 26, 2004 8:42:03 AM

I think Kerry will do very well. My gut tells me that US News poll showing him beating Bush will have a large effect on the undecided. I just don't see the undecided going to Clark, Dean, or Lieberman, but to Edwards and Kerry again. That is what happened in Iowa despite the polls leading up to it and I expect it to trend again.

Kerry 38%
Edwards 23%
Dean 18%
Clark 11%
Lieberman 10%

Posted by: Dave at Jan 26, 2004 11:37:21 AM

I have posted New Hampshire Prediction Results. Check it out.

Posted by: California Yankee at Jan 28, 2004 4:43:48 PM