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Tuesday, December 30, 2003

Hugh Hewitt's Predictions for 2004

National Review Online asked several of its contributors for their predictions of 2004, and the Commish, Hugh Hewitt, has a few provocative choices. There are a couple I disagree with:

* Evan Bayh as Dean's VP candidate: I can't see Bayh jumping onto a rolling train wreck, even for the sake of the party. Edwards has less to lose and more to gain, and a stronger connection to the South. That change gives Bush Indiana and Maryland, loses him at least South Carolina, but overall makes no difference in Bush's landslide victory.

* I don't think Cheney stays on the ticket in 2004. I think Bush thanks Cheney for his service, but Cheney bows out due to "health issues", and Bush picks either Rudy Giuliani or possibly Condoleeza Rice or Olympia Snowe to round out the ticket. Bush likes bold, historical moves, and any of these three could help him expand his appeal and his base, marginalizing Dean even further.

* Power Line as the must-read blog of 2004? Of course! It's my must-read blog in 2003. I need to spend more time at the Evangelical Outpost, but I think he's right about that, too, from the multiple blogs that routinely reference it. (I'm angling for a prediction for 2005, naturally ...)

One last note: I enthusiastically agree with the Big Trunk's description of Hugh Hewitt as a magnanimous, gifted man "who seeks to use his success to benefit others." I'd use the same description for the guys at Power Line, who have been tremendously encouraging and helpful during my brief (three-month) blogging career.

UPDATE: Eric at Nuts and Dolts disagrees with my VP prediction, but only in timing. He feels that Cheney will ride out the election but will resign in the coming term -- an interesting and bold conjecture! Eric and I agree that the VP position will be the most effective launching pad for the Republican nominee in 2008, and Cheney simply won't be electable. However, I think that selecting a VP mid-term will expose the nominee to an unmerciful grilling in the Senate, which will have to confirm Bush's selection. The potential for embarrassing attacks and disclosures through that process may be too risky for a second term and will negate any political momentum the VP has in the next election.

However, if Bush wants Jeb to run in 2008, then he'll keep Cheney on to reduce competition for the primaries.

UPDATE 2: The guys at Fraters Libertas want Hugh to remember a blog he didn't mention -- and it's not even FL, for Pete's sake. It's Spitbull, which I'm blogrolling a bit belatedly. I note that they didn't seem to concerned with the omission of a certain jack-booted bard ...

Now that you have read this post, read the most recent entries at the new Captain's Quarters at http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/!

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Comments

I don't think Jeb is electable to the top post. There is just something in the American electorate about avoiding TOO many relatives holding the top position in the same generation (it would become something close to a monarchy).

I think Cheney will stay on the ticket since he is the man who appeals to the hard right, but he is not electible due to age, health and other issues. So republicans need to groom SOMEONE for the '08 election.

Posted by: Director Mitch at Dec 30, 2003 12:53:39 PM

Ed
I updated again.

There is risk both ways, so if you have a choice take the risk later. How often in politics do you get a chance to look this good going into an election?

Posted by: ericinwaco at Dec 31, 2003 12:02:57 AM

Ed
I updated again.

There is risk both ways, so if you have a choice take the risk later. How often in politics do you get a chance to look this good going into an election?

Posted by: ericinwaco at Dec 31, 2003 12:03:04 AM

Ed
I updated again.

There is risk both ways, so if you have a choice take the risk later. How often in politics do you get a chance to look this good going into an election?

Posted by: ericinwaco at Dec 31, 2003 12:03:41 AM